The Limits of Air Conditioning

When Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana in August 2021, catastrophic flooding and powerful winds left over a million people without power. As temperatures soared above 90 degrees Fahrenheit, the ensuing heat wave caused significant distress. In New Orleans, heat was the deadliest factor, responsible for nine out of fourteen hurricane-related deaths.

The scenario of a hurricane, heat wave, and prolonged power outage is becoming more common due to climate change. This reveals a critical weakness in our reliance on air conditioning (AC) for protection against extreme heat. While AC offers respite from the heat, it also exacerbates the problem by consuming large amounts of energy, primarily sourced from fossil fuels, thus contributing to global warming.

The increasing demand for AC is expected to triple by 2050, driven by rising global temperatures and incomes. However, the reliability of electricity is a major concern. Frequent extreme weather events and soaring cooling demands are pushing electrical grids to their limits. Weather-related events caused 80% of major power outages in the US between 2000 and 2023, according to Climate Central.

The US electrical grid is aging and was designed for past weather patterns, not the future's. Michael Webber, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of Texas at Austin, explains that heat makes the grid less efficient, similar to how people struggle in high temperatures. Major outages, affecting over 50,000 customers, doubled between 2017 and 2020, particularly during summer months, indicating system resilience issues.

California experienced rolling blackouts in August 2020 due to a heat wave overwhelming the grid. The Pacific Northwest saw similar issues in 2021 when temperatures exceeded 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Europe also faced power outages during extreme heat in June, affecting Albania, Bosnia, Croatia, and Montenegro.

Even short power outages can be life-threatening. Heat waves can cause heat exhaustion, stroke, and death, making electricity crucial for cooling. Without power, people are at severe risk during extreme heat events. A study by Brian Stone Jr. at Georgia Tech highlights this danger, showing that a multi-day outage in Phoenix could lead to 800,000 heat-related hospitalizations and over 13,000 deaths.

Authorities in Phoenix argue that they are prepared for such scenarios, but the potential for deadly heat events and outages is increasing with climate change. Enhancing the grid’s robustness, expanding its capacity, and incorporating diverse energy sources are vital steps. However, recognizing the inevitability of grid failures, we need backup plans and sustainable urban designs.

Community solar projects, like Babcock Ranch in Florida, demonstrate resilience by maintaining power during grid failures. Making homes more energy-efficient also reduces cooling demand during heat waves. Ultimately, our reliance on AC has made us vulnerable. Strengthening the grid and adopting sustainable practices are crucial as we face the ongoing impacts of climate change.